Vitaly Novikov

MOSCOW - Vitaly Novikov released some statistical analysis of over 52,000 hands of MCR mahjong, and some of the results may not be what you would have expected! Did you know winning with Thirteen Orphans is more more common than winning with two concealed kongs? Players more often win with a pure straight than they do with an edge wait? These facts and other statistical wonders can be explored in his spreadsheet compiled for your interest here.

In the table below we see how many times certain fan were collected during 52,057 deals, hence one can obtain frequency in terms of "how many deals is needed to get one occurrence of a certain fan".

"Rarity" is some rough logarithmic measure:

rarity = 0 means that you see that fan every deal (Flower Tiles).

rarity = 1 -- at least once per 16 deals.

rarity = 2 -- at least once per 16*16=256 deals.

rarity = 3 -- at least once per 16*16*16=4,096 deals.

rarity = 4 -- at least once per 16*16*16*16=65,536 deals.

4 fans are still missing: "Seven Shifted Pairs" (though was collected in 2014), "4 Kongs", "9 Gates", "Quadruple Chow".

 

Points Hand Times Deals Freq One per x deals Rarity
1  Flower Tiles[13] 74620 52057 1.433 0.698 0
1  Pung of Terminals or Honors[5] 18694 52057 35.9% 2.78 1
1  Self drawn[12] 10640 52057 20.4% 4.89 1
1  Mixed Double Chow[2] 9935 52057 19.1% 5.24 1
1  Closed wait[10] 8608 52057 16.5% 6.05 1
1  One Voided Suit[7] 7705 52057 14.8% 6.76 1
1  Single wait[11] 6385 52057 12.3% 8.15 1
1  No Honors[8] 6215 52057 11.9% 8.38 1
1  Short Straight[3] 5258 52057 10.1% 9.90 1
1  Melded kong[6] 4358 52057 8.37% 11.9 1
1  Edge wait[9] 4067 52057 7.81% 12.8 1
1  Pure Double Chow[1] 2732 52057 5.25% 19.1 2
1  Two terminal chows[4] 2415 52057 4.64% 21.6 2
2  All Chows[18] 16753 52057 32.2% 3.11 1
2  Dragon Pung[14] 9572 52057 18.4% 5.44 1
2  All Simples[23] 4527 52057 8.70% 11.5 1
2  Concealed hand[17] 3936 52057 7.56% 13.2 1
2  Seat Wind[16] 3391 52057 6.51% 15.4 1
2  Prevalent Wind[15] 3349 52057 6.43% 15.5 1
2  Tile Hog[19] 2914 52057 5.60% 17.9 2
2  Double Pung[20] 2651 52057 5.09% 19.6 2
2  Two Concealed Pungs[21] 1974 52057 3.79% 26.4 2
2  Concealed Kong[22] 838 52057 1.61% 62.1 2
4  Last tile[27] 3051 52057 5.86% 17.1 2
4  Outside Hand[24] 2295 52057 4.41% 22.7 2
4  Fully Concealed Hand[25] 2193 52057 4.21% 23.7 2
4  Two Melded Kongs[26] 321 52057 0.617% 162 2
6  Mixed Shifted Chows[30] 8046 52057 15.5% 6.47 1
6  Half Flush[29] 7545 52057 14.5% 6.90 1
6  All types[31] 6917 52057 13.3% 7.53 1
6  All Pungs[28] 5999 52057 11.5% 8.68 1
6  Melded hand[32] 1556 52057 2.99% 33.5 2
6  Two Dragons[34] 507 52057 0.974% 103 2
6  One Melded One Concealed Kong[261] 144 52057 0.277% 362 3
8  Mixed Triple Chow[37] 5011 52057 9.63% 10.4 1
8  Mixed Straight[35] 4371 52057 8.40% 11.9 1
8  Reversible Tiles[36] 484 52057 0.930% 108 2
8  Mixed Shifted Pungs[38] 316 52057 0.607% 165 2
8  Chicken Hand[39] 263 52057 0.505% 198 2
8  Out with replacement tile[42] 246 52057 0.473% 212 2
8  Robbing the kong[43] 158 52057 0.304% 329 3
8  Last tile claim[41] 82 52057 0.158% 635 3
8  Last tile draw[40] 43 52057 0.0826% 1211 3
8  Two Concealed Kongs[33] 16 52057 0.0307% 3254 3
12  Upper Four[46] 1194 52057 2.29% 43.6 2
12  Lower Four[47] 1097 52057 2.11% 47.5 2
12  Lesser Honors and Knitted Tiles[44] 843 52057 1.62% 61.8 2
12  Knitted Straight[45] 421 52057 0.809% 124 2
12  Big Three Winds[48] 52 52057 0.100% 1001 3
16  Pure Straight[49] 4131 52057 7.94% 12.6 1
16  Pure Shifted Chows[51] 1757 52057 3.38% 29.6 2
16  Three Concealed Pungs[54] 389 52057 0.747% 134 2
16  Triple Pung[53] 104 52057 0.200% 501 3
16  All Fives[52] 95 52057 0.182% 548 3
16  Three Suited Terminal Chows[50] 21 52057 0.0403% 2479 3
24  Full Flush[58] 1679 52057 3.23% 31.0 2
24  Seven Pairs[55] 1181 52057 2.27% 44.1 2
24  Greater Honors and Knitted Tiles[56] 437 52057 0.839% 119 2
24  Pure Shifted Pungs[60] 266 52057 0.511% 196 2
24  Upper Tiles[61] 142 52057 0.273% 367 3
24  Lower Tiles[63] 138 52057 0.265% 377 3
24  Middle Tiles[62] 136 52057 0.261% 383 3
24  All Even[57] 77 52057 0.148% 676 3
24  Pure Triple Chow[59] 36 52057 0.0692% 1446 3
32  All Terminals and Honors[66] 130 52057 0.250% 400 3
32  Four Shifted Chows[64] 58 52057 0.111% 898 3
32  Three Kongs[65] 33 52057 0.0634% 1577 3
48  Four Pure Shifted Pungs[68] 6 52057 0.0115% 8676 4
64  Little Three Dragons[71] 132 52057 0.254% 394 3
64  Four Concealed Pungs[73] 28 52057 0.0538% 1859 3
64  Little Four Winds[70] 16 52057 0.0307% 3254 3
64  All Honors[72] 10 52057 0.0192% 5206 4
64  All terminals[69] 4 52057 0.00768% 13014 4
64  Pure Terminal Chows[74] 2 52057 0.00384% 26029 4
88  Thirteen Orphans[81] 21 52057 0.0403% 2479 3
88  Big Three Dragons[76] 15 52057 0.0288% 3470 3
88  All Green[77] 5 52057 0.00960% 10411 4
88  Big Four Winds[75] 1 52057 0.00192% 52057 4

 

Download the Excel spreadsheet with the complete data

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  • Guest - Peter

    Was looking for something like this :-)
    Could you share the source of this data?
    So would we be able (provided we capture the data somehow) to figure out whether a player is too often aiming too high?
    Which datapoints would you deem to be usefull to analyze performance improvement?
    We run club competition and recently decided to capture the MJ minipoints, along with regular stats like rounds played, wins, discards, self-picks, draws and scores, we have not figured how to best capture the main fan for the mahjong hand (perhaps the fan# - green book).
    Our methodology to teach Mahjong is based on primary and secondary scoring elements. The primary distinction is whether the chosen scoring element(s) are/can be part of an intentional plan as opposed to scoring elements that more or less happen to you if you are a bit more lucky. The aim here is to draw focus on the primary scoring elements -a subset of the total of course-, the unexperienced player will focus on primary 6, 8 and their natural higher scoring parents. The expectation is that experience and learning will allow the player to expand their arsenal of scoring elements.
    Also curious whether perhaps the numbers have changed? do you have information about whether the players were experienced or not?
    Tx,
    Peter

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